The UK will vote on May 5th on whether to switch to the Alternative Vote system (AV) rather than the current First Past The Post (FPTP). I'm a supporter of AV, but FPTP has huge support from both the major parties and from Rupert Murdoch, which means that it both doesn't have a chance and must be the right way on principal.

Fact is anything legal that Murdoch's against I'm for on principal.

There has been a lot of misinformation about this: lots of bad examples in every media outlet trying to make AV seem much more complicated than it is, and no clear explanation as to why anyone would want the switch in the first place.

So here's my go: imagine a typical UK voting scenario at the next election. There are 6 candidates:

  • Conservative - centre right, currently in power, conflicted on EU.
  • Labour - slightly less right than the Conservatives but more authoritarian
  • Liberal Democrat - centre left, but lie a lot.
  • Green Party - left wing and pro environment, but tiny.
  • UKIP - right wing and isolationist.
  • BNP - left wing and openly racist.

FPTP

Under the current FPTP system you cast your vote for one of the above, but you have a problem if you don't support either of the top two.

For instance I'm left wing, but I don't think much of the Labour party. The Green Party is closest to my political views. However, a vote for the Greens is a wasted one - only Conservative and Labour have any real chance of winning. I end up voting Labour, as despite the fact that they're my third choice I would still rather see them win than the Conservatives.

This tactical voting isn't only a problem for me - suppose that someone is right wing economically but prefers UKIP's stance on the EU to the Conservative's? They'd have to vote Conservative tactically too.

In both cases the relevant mainstream party claims the voter's support - there's no visibility that they were nobody's first choice.

Despite all that tactical voting most voters will have gone for someone other than the candidate that wins - with 6 candidates that could be less than 20% of the votes!

AV

So under AV that changes - instead of one X in a box we put all 6 candidates in order. I put my first choice down as the Green Party, then Lib Dem, then Labour. My right wing counterpart chooses UKIP, then Conservative.

  1. Greens have the fewest votes - my vote falls back to Lib Dems, my second choice.
  2. BNP have the next fewest.
  3. UKIP are next - my counterpart's vote falls back to Conservative.
  4. Lib Dems are next, so my vote falls back again, this time to Labour

So after all that we still have either Labour or Conservative, but with two very important differences:

  • The winner has 50% of all the votes cast.
  • Everyone gets access to the voting stats, so everyone knows how much support each party actually has.

That second point is important for all the smaller parties - for instance the BNP would see that they have a very small number of first choices and that everyone else lists them last (incidentally the BNP are dead against AV, despite what the anti-AV lobbyists say). Lots of small single issue parties would be able to show that there is support for their issue, even if not enough to elect them on that alone. Lots of alternate parties like the Greens and UKIP could accurately gauge their support. Lots of independent candidates could stand despite not having national backing.

Most seats in the UK don't have that much choice - my local MP at the last election was a choice of Lib Dem, Labour or Conservative, and the Conservative's took it by a very slim margin. Arguable the left-wing vote was split across two parties while the right-wing voter only had one choice. Likewise there were plenty of seats with a choice of Labour, Conservative or UKIP where Labour got in, this time because the right-wing vote was split.

In fact in the last election there were several marginal seats where smaller parties didn't even field a candidate for fear of splitting the left or right voting blocks.

More fine grain choice of political parties shouldn't reduce your chances of success!

So why are the big parties so against this? Well, long term it breaks down their monopoly - it will be easier to gain support for smaller parties. It will make election outcomes considerably more unpredictable - MPs will have to work harder for your vote because it will mean more. Surely MPs having to work harder can only be a good thing?

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And I'll tell you why...

The allegory constantly used by governments and the media is on of a household, and the recession is like the breadwinners losing their jobs. Obviously anyone sensible would cut back, yeah?

But, countries are nothing like households, and that allegory just doesn't work.

I'm not arguing that they shouldn't cut back at all, but I think a healthy government should be running some degree of deficit during a recession.

Here are my assumptions:

1. There will ALWAYS be boom and bust

We can't stop the cycle of boom and bust, it's been going for hundreds of years and will continue for hundreds more. Maybe one day, but no financial theory to date has come close to a way around them.

With that assumption we should plan for them: busts will happen.

The UK will vote on May 5th on whether to switch to the Alternative Vote system (AV) rather than the current First Past The Post (FPTP). I'm a supporter of AV, but FPTP has huge support from both the major parties and from Rupert Murdoch, which means that it both doesn't have a chance and must be the right way on principal.

Fact is anything legal that Murdoch's against I'm for on principal.

There is a problem in UK banking that's stalling our recovery and it goes something like this:

Banks have two main components: high street lending & saving, and investment banking. The investment banking side took far too many risks in dodgy sub prime investments and lost all the money. However if the high street lending & saving side of a big bank fails it does huge damage to the economy, so the government steps in to fill the gap.

British Airways have the best paid flight staff in the world. Their pay is sky high (sorry) – cabin crew can earn up to £56k a year! To put it in context that's more than junior and mid-level doctors – I really don’t see how any cabin crew job can be worth more than even the most junior doctor's role.

BA also run one of the biggest teams per flight – they have 14 on each long-haul plane.

The problem is that flights on BA are expensive.

Recently at TechEd Berlin I attended an optimising Javascript presentation that I described as having "lost focus".

I think this one (from Google) is far more the sort of level and detail that I expected:

This presentation is excellent - in fact I think every developer who ever does any Javascript should view it.

I think the current situation with bankers' bonuses shows a complete failure to understand risk and how markets actually work.

There's a TV show in the UK called Property Ladder. Every week through the property boom it followed someone buying and renovating a house with a view to selling it for profit. They found some proper idiots on that show.

There's a great deal of fuss at the moment about RBS's investment division's planned bonuses. They've made some money (great!) but want to pay over a billion in bonuses, which is over a quarter of the profit.

When .Net originally launched it came with first rate support for Simple Object Access Protocol (SOAP) and at the time I was seriously impressed. Creating a SOAP client-server connection was amazingly easy - little more than adding a .asmx file and decorating your methods with the [WebMethod] attribute, and then point your client project at it and Visual Studio does the rest.

What Visual Studio actually does in this case is create a large auto-generated code file from the WSDL.

Sightseeing

By this point we were starting to feel the tech-fatigue. We took the opportunity to see a little of Berlin, before heading back to hit the labs and the convention stalls

DEV301r Microsoft Visual Studio Tips and Tricks

Scott Cate Nice session to finish on - most of these I knew already but a couple were new. They're all on Scott's blog.

Finally all the stands that had prize draws held their raffles.
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