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There's a great deal of fuss at the moment about RBS's investment division's planned bonuses. They've made some money (great!) but want to pay over a billion in bonuses, which is over a quarter of the profit.

As the UK tax-payer owns 84% of RBS there is quite rightly uproar about this – why are we paying the wealthy fat-cats that we just had to bail out? However the RBS executive team are going on about how they need to pay these bonuses to keep the best staff, and that they’ll lose all the talented bankers to competitors. They argue that any control of bankers' bonuses should be across all banks, because otherwise they'll lose any edge. They're threatening to resign over this - they won't of course, but it gets them in the papers.

Both sides seem to have compelling arguments, leaving our government with a stark choice:

  • Block the bankers' bonuses, which might win votes (or at least not lose them) but will result in all the best bankers leaving, and hence RBS will make less money.
  • Pay the bankers' bonuses, which will definitely lose them even more votes but will keep the best employees and in the long term RBS pays the tax-payer back sooner.

The problem is that the fundamental assumptions here are just plain wrong for two reasons:

  • 25% of all the profit is an insane amount to pay as any sort of bonus. What – I risk my entire capital (not just some of it - I risk every single penny) on your investment nouse and you take ¼ of my profit? I'm sure you know where you can stick that deal.
  • The assumption that the 'good' bankers will leave if not paid the bonus is wrong. These are highly paid people already, so the ones that leave will be those whose priorities are skewed to the big risks for big rewards.

I've argued this second point before – would you leave a good, very high paying job, for another that might not be so good (or might go very wrong) but the pay was silly money? I'm sure a million pound job looks pretty appealing, but if you're already earning hundreds of thousands do you really want to take the risk of the new job?

The sort of person who takes a big risk for this kind of reward is specifically the sort of person that I don’t want looking after my money! It’s exactly that kind of high stakes gambling that got us here in the first place – why would we want to reward that?

It's just not good business practice to pay inflated amounts for things that don't really do you any good.

Cancel the bonuses (or knock them down to something that makes sense, like 1% of profit), wave goodbye to the risk taking bankers that leave and take all that profit to start paying back the tax-payer.

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And I'll tell you why...

The allegory constantly used by governments and the media is on of a household, and the recession is like the breadwinners losing their jobs. Obviously anyone sensible would cut back, yeah?

But, countries are nothing like households, and that allegory just doesn't work.

I'm not arguing that they shouldn't cut back at all, but I think a healthy government should be running some degree of deficit during a recession.

Here are my assumptions:

1. There will ALWAYS be boom and bust

We can't stop the cycle of boom and bust, it's been going for hundreds of years and will continue for hundreds more. Maybe one day, but no financial theory to date has come close to a way around them.

With that assumption we should plan for them: busts will happen.

The UK will vote on May 5th on whether to switch to the Alternative Vote system (AV) rather than the current First Past The Post (FPTP). I'm a supporter of AV, but FPTP has huge support from both the major parties and from Rupert Murdoch, which means that it both doesn't have a chance and must be the right way on principal.

Fact is anything legal that Murdoch's against I'm for on principal.

There is a problem in UK banking that's stalling our recovery and it goes something like this:

Banks have two main components: high street lending & saving, and investment banking. The investment banking side took far too many risks in dodgy sub prime investments and lost all the money. However if the high street lending & saving side of a big bank fails it does huge damage to the economy, so the government steps in to fill the gap.

British Airways have the best paid flight staff in the world. Their pay is sky high (sorry) – cabin crew can earn up to £56k a year! To put it in context that's more than junior and mid-level doctors – I really don’t see how any cabin crew job can be worth more than even the most junior doctor's role.

BA also run one of the biggest teams per flight – they have 14 on each long-haul plane.

The problem is that flights on BA are expensive.

Recently at TechEd Berlin I attended an optimising Javascript presentation that I described as having "lost focus".

I think this one (from Google) is far more the sort of level and detail that I expected:

This presentation is excellent - in fact I think every developer who ever does any Javascript should view it.

I think the current situation with bankers' bonuses shows a complete failure to understand risk and how markets actually work.

There's a TV show in the UK called Property Ladder. Every week through the property boom it followed someone buying and renovating a house with a view to selling it for profit. They found some proper idiots on that show.

There's a great deal of fuss at the moment about RBS's investment division's planned bonuses. They've made some money (great!) but want to pay over a billion in bonuses, which is over a quarter of the profit.

When .Net originally launched it came with first rate support for Simple Object Access Protocol (SOAP) and at the time I was seriously impressed. Creating a SOAP client-server connection was amazingly easy - little more than adding a .asmx file and decorating your methods with the [WebMethod] attribute, and then point your client project at it and Visual Studio does the rest.

What Visual Studio actually does in this case is create a large auto-generated code file from the WSDL.

Sightseeing

By this point we were starting to feel the tech-fatigue. We took the opportunity to see a little of Berlin, before heading back to hit the labs and the convention stalls

DEV301r Microsoft Visual Studio Tips and Tricks

Scott Cate Nice session to finish on - most of these I knew already but a couple were new. They're all on Scott's blog.

Finally all the stands that had prize draws held their raffles.
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