I don't know how long anything will take
"An estimate is an estimate, not a promise" I'm saying it a little too often for comfort at present. Someone asks how long something will take and if I tell them the assumption will be made that it will take exactly that long.
Thing is: I don't know how long anything will take. If I'm truly honest the answer is always "I don't know." I'm an experienced developer and manager of developers, and I suspect that my guess is better than most and I'll have a pretty good idea of how accurate my guess is, but that's all it ever is - a guess.
I used to manage a team producing micro-sites. Simple little applications that were always the same. My estimates were good to the hour on them.